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基于GM（1，1）和ARIMA模型的安徽省孕产妇及儿童死亡率的预测研究

Prediction of maternal and children mortality rate in Anhui Province based on GM(1,1) and ARIMA model

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 构建2022 — 2025年安徽省孕产妇死亡率（maternal mortality rate, MMR）、婴儿死亡率（infant mortality rate, IMR）、新生儿死亡率（neonatal mortality rate, NMR）及5岁以下儿童死亡率（under 5 mortality rate, U5MR）发展预测模型, 预测安徽省4个指标的发展趋势, 以期为安徽省“十四五”妇幼卫生规划的落实提供参考依据。
    方法 收集2012 — 2021年安徽省卫生健康事业发展统计公报的相关数据, 利用灰色预测模型GM（1, 1）和差分自回归移动平均模型（autoregressive integrated moving average model, ARIMA）, 对2022 — 2025年安徽省MMR、IMR、NMR、U5MR进行预测。
    结果 采用ARIMA和GM（1, 1）模型对安徽省MMR、IMR、NMR、U5MR预测的平均绝对误差分别为2.021、0.880、0.671、1.131和1.900、0.290、0.150、0.341, 平均相对误差分别为0.163、0.188、0.220、0.182和0.154、0.062、0.050、0.055, GM（1, 1）预测误差较小。经预测, 到2025年安徽省MMR、IMR、NMR、U5MR分别降至5.68/10万、1.57‰、0.82‰及2.23‰。
    结论 运用GM（1, 1）模型进行拟合和预测效果较好, 2022 — 2025年安徽省MMR、IMR、NMR、U5MR的预测结果均呈逐年下降趋势。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To construct a forecast model for the development of maternal mortality rate(MMR), infant mortality rate(IMR), neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under 5 mortality rate (U5MR) in Anhui Province from 2022 to 2025, so as to predict the trend of the 4 indicators and to provide evidence for the implementation of maternal and child health planning targets in the 14th Five-Year Plan.
    Methods Relevant data from the Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care in Anhui Province 2012 - 2021 were collected. Grey GM(1, 1) and autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) were used to predict MMR, IMR NMR, U5MR in Anhui Province from 2022 to 2025.
    Results The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for MMR, IMR, NMR and U5MR in Anhui Province predicted by the ARIMA and GM(1, 1) models were 2.021, 0.880, 0.671, 1.131 and 1.900, 0.290, 0.150, 0.341, respectively, and the Mean Relative Error (MRE) for those were 0.163, 0.188, 0.220, 0.182 and 0.154, 0.062, 0.050, 0.055 respectively. The prediction errors of GM(1, 1) model were smaller. MMR、IMR、NMR、U5MR would be declined to 5.68/105, 1.57‰, 0.82‰ and 2.23‰ by 2025 based on the prediction.
    Conclusion The GM(1, 1) model is well fit and predict more accurate. The predicted results of MMR, IMR, NMR, and U5MR in Anhui Province from 2022 to 2025 show a downward trend year by year.

     

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