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2002 — 2021年中国0 ~ 14岁儿童机动车辆交通事故死亡率时间趋势分析

Temporal trends analysis of motor vehicle traffic accident mortality among children aged 0 − 14 years in China from 2002 to 2021

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 描述分析2002 — 2021年中国城乡0 ~ 14岁儿童机动车辆交通事故死亡率的时间变化趋势，以期为我国儿童机动车辆交通事故防控提供参考依据。
    方法 利用中国卫生统计年鉴，提取2002 — 2021年城乡0 ~ 14岁儿童机动车辆交通事故死亡率数据并计算标化死亡率。利用Joinpoint 回归模型计算不同地区、性别和年龄别死亡率的年度变化百分比（annual percentage rate change，APC）和年度平均变化百分比（average annual percentage rate change，AAPC），并分析其时间变化趋势。
    结果 Joinpoint回归分析表明，城乡儿童机动车辆交通事故标化死亡率呈现先上升后下降的趋势，城市2015年前为上升阶段（APC = 8.96%，P < 0.05），2015年后为下降阶段（APC = − 11.02%，P < 0.05）；农村2013年前为上升阶段（APC = 14.08%，P < 0.05），2013年后为下降阶段（APC = − 8.15%，P < 0.05）。2002 — 2021年农村儿童AAPC为 4.13%（P < 0.05），高于城市儿童（AAPC = 2.21%，P > 0.05）。2002 — 2021年中国儿童机动车交通事故标化死亡率分性别分析结果表明，农村男童和女童总体呈上升趋势，AAPC分别为3.02%和5.06%（P < 0.05）；分年龄别分析结果表明，农村 1 ~ 4岁和5 ~ 9岁组总体呈上升趋势，AAPC分别为5.93%和3.84%（P < 0.05）。
    结论 2002 — 2021年中国城乡0 ~ 14岁儿童机动车辆交通事故标化死亡率呈现先升后降的趋势，农村整体呈现上升趋势。未来仍需进一步加强交通安全防控工作，尤其是农村地区。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To describe and analyze the temporal trends of motor vehicle traffic accident mortality rate among children aged 0 ~ 14 years in urban and rural areas of China from 2002 to 2021, providing a reference for the prevention and control of children’s motor vehicle traffic accidents in China.
    Methods Based on the China Health Statistics Yearbook, data on motor vehicle traffic accident mortality rates among children aged 0 − 14 years in urban and rural areas from 2002 to 2021 were extracted, and the standardized mortality rates was calculated. The Joinpoint regression model was utilized to compute the annual percentage rate change (APC) and the average annual percentage rate change (AAPC) for mortality rates by region, gender, and age, and to analyze their temporal trends.
    Results Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the children’s motor vehicle traffic accident standardized mortality rates in both urban and rural areas showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. APC for the city’s growing stage was 8.96% (P < 0.05) before 2015, and APC for the city’s declining stage following 2015 was − 11.02% (P < 0.05). Before 2013, the rising stage in rural regions had an APC of 14.08% (P < 0.05), and after 2013, the decreasing stage had an APC of − 8.15% (P < 0.05). The AAPC for rural children from 2002 to 2021 was 4.13% (P < 0.05), which was higher than the AAPC for urban children (AAPC = 2.21%, P > 0.05). Gender-specific analysis revealed that rural boys and girls showed an overall upward trend during the research period, with AAPCs of 3.02% and 5.06%, respectively (P < 0.05). Age-specific mortality study results revealed an overall increased trend from 2002 to 2021 for the 1 − 4 years old and 5 − 9 years old groups in rural areas, with AAPC of 5.93% and 3.84%, respectively (P < 0.05).
    Conclusions From 2002 to 2021, the standardized mortality rates of motor vehicle traffic accident of children aged 0 − 14 years in urban and rural areas of China showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, with an overall increasing trend in rural areas. In the future, traffic safety prevention and control should be further strengthened, especially in rural areas.

     

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