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运用双重差分模型评价社区跌倒预防的干预效果

Evaluation of the Intervention Effect of Community-based Fall Prevention by Difference-in-Difference Model

  • 摘要: 目的 运用双重差分模型评价社区跌倒预防的干预效果。方法 以青海、山西两省2013年老年人跌倒情况为基线资料,以2015年老年人跌倒情况为终末资料,通过Logistic回归模型筛选跌倒相关的控制变量,再运用倾向性评分法和双重差分模型(DID)评价干预前后跌倒的预防效果。结果 跌倒相关因素分别是项目实施前后、是否有干预措施、是否患心脑血管疾病、民族和年龄,控制跌倒相关因素后,跌倒干预的净效应为10.8%(t=3.78,P<0.001)。结论 DID模型结合倾向性评分法可精确分离干预措施的净效应,便于阐明干预与效果的因果关系。

     

    Abstract: Objective To evaluate the intervention effect of fall prevention using Difference-in-Difference model.Methods Based on the data of fall of the elderly in Qinghai and Shanxi Provinces in 2013 and 2015, the fall-related control variables were screened by logistic regression model, and then the propensity score method and DID model were be used to evaluate the preventive effect of fall before and after intervention.Results The incidence of falls was related to before and after the implementation of the project, whether having intervention, whether suffering from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, ethnicity and age. The net effect of fall intervention was 10.8% (t=3.78, P<0.001) after control the factors related to fall.Conclusion The DID model combined with propensity score method can accurately separate the net effect of interventions and facilitate the elucidation of the causal relationship between intervention and effect.

     

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