Prediction of maternal and children mortality rate in Anhui Province based on GM(1,1) and ARIMA model

Objective To construct a forecast model for the development of maternal mortality rate(MMR), infant mortality rate(IMR), neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under 5 mortality rate (U5MR) in Anhui Province from 2022 to 2025, so as to predict the trend of the 4 indicators and to provide evidence for the implementation of maternal and child health planning targets in the 14th Five-Year Plan.

Methods Relevant data from the Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care in Anhui Province 2012 - 2021 were collected. Grey GM(1, 1) and autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) were used to predict MMR, IMR NMR, U5MR in Anhui Province from 2022 to 2025.

Results The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for MMR, IMR, NMR and U5MR in Anhui Province predicted by the ARIMA and GM(1, 1) models were 2.021, 0.880, 0.671, 1.131 and 1.900, 0.290, 0.150, 0.341, respectively, and the Mean Relative Error (MRE) for those were 0.163, 0.188, 0.220, 0.182 and 0.154, 0.062, 0.050, 0.055 respectively. The prediction errors of GM(1, 1) model were smaller. MMR、IMR、NMR、U5MR would be declined to 5.68/10⁵, 1.57‰, 0.82‰ and 2.23‰ by 2025 based on the prediction.

Conclusion The GM(1, 1) model is well fit and predict more accurate. The predicted results of MMR, IMR, NMR, and U5MR in Anhui Province from 2022 to 2025 show a downward trend year by year.